Quote:
Originally Posted by Saul Good
I was thinking that using the $6m number made the contract look dumb whereas the $8m number makes it look reasonable. I haven't spent any time analyzing whether or not those numbers are accurate, nor do I care to. I figure it's a good place to start in terms of a back of the napkin contract value analysis, though.
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The 6 per figure requires that he managed 3.8 WAR/season for the life of the deal.
You've just made Chris Davis one of the top 10 highest paid position players in terms of AAV in all of baseball. I'd say expecting just a shade under 4 WAR/season is pretty fair.
You're not even asking him to hit 3/season to consider it a below market deal via the 8.4 analysis. To put that in perspective, Adam Lind managed 3.1 WAR last season and is a lefty hitter who plays 1b. Lucas Duda managed 2.99; another defensively limited lefty swinging 1b who's primary attribute is power.
If Chris Davis spends the next 7 years being a worse player than Lucas Duda and Adam Lind, that is NOT a good use of $23 million/season.