Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
Of all things related to the Royals minor league team, I do feel confident saying Mondesi's floor is Escobar's current level of contribution: Great defensive player whose offense is driven by average year to year but is just OK for the position.
He's going to be a quality big-league regular even if he's a .250 hitter because of his defense and base running. Obviously, there is more in the tank there because of his tools.
Only thing I'd quibble with is that I'd have to give Starling credit for having a good minor league season in 2015, his first since his first season in the minors. He OPS'd .750ish in his first go at AA while playing excellent defense and then performed well in the Fall League.
It will be interesting to see if he can build on that in 2016. His 2015 actually compares very closely with what George Springer did the year before he broke out, after struggling in years prior.
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Like I said - Starling is intriguing, but if not for his draft position would his 2015 season do anything to make you take pause? Probably not.
You're absolutely correct that 2016 will likely tell the tale on him - but 2016 ain't here yet so that's why I'm saying that he was putting a lot on pure faith. Starling needs to have that breakout minor league season before I think you can consider him even a major league regular, let alone one of the most valuable CFers in the game.
His draft position supports the idea that the talent is there and his 2015 season suggests that maybe he's not completely lost, but he was damn near shipped away for a bag of magic beans after another underwhelming season in 2014 and a disastrous AFL stint because the Royals front office thought he was a bust.
So one seasons that was good but not great in AA (in the notoriously hitter-friendly Texas League, no less) and now we're penciling him in as a Cain replacement? And really, if the Texas League isn't the most hitter-friendly league in all of professional baseball, the PCL is - even Omaha may not give you a great idea of what he has. Obviously he can only play where his teams are situated, but man you'd like to get him a lap through the International League to get a better feel. The Carolina League is usually a pretty fair league but it took him a 2nd pass at it as a 22 yr old in A+ to finally get it figured out.
In the AFL, against the most advanced pitching he's faced (and in yet another hitter friendly environment), he struck out 25 times to only 6 walks in his 90 PAs. That's gotta make you nervous, especially in light of the 30-3 ratio over 85 PAs he put up in the AFL in 2014.
Starling has tools and maybe the breakout will come, but folks need to pump the brakes on the kid. There are some pretty substantial holes in his game still and until that breakout actually happens, I'd stand down on counting on him as much more than a 4th OFer, let alone an All-Star caliber player.