Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo
Thought this was interesting.
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When the Cardinals added Eduard Mujica a few years back, a guy I was talking with mentioned his WPA with the Marlins and gave me a pretty good rundown on it.
I was sold from that point forward. It's really an ideal way to analyze reliever value, IMO. It's still somewhat situation dependent but it also gives you a much better big-picture view than things like WAR and even peripheral performance stats like WHIP and K%.
Guys that consistently go out there and leave with there team more likely to win than they were when the pitcher came into the game are, by their definition, valuable relief pitchers. Ryan Madson is a perfect example - there's nothing sexy about Madson's arsenal. He's not a super high strikeout guy, he doesn't blow you away with heat or the snapdragon breaking balls. He just goes out there and gets the job done to the tune of the 10th best WPA in the AL and 23rd best overall. The Cardinals have one of those of their own in Seth Maness - he's nothing but a sinkerballer who throws strikes but he put up the 13th best WPA in baseball last year.
The one thing I can't figure out if it's a predictive stat at all. Does a good WPA one year suggest a good WPA the next? I haven't seen any research on it but if you look at the guys that are leading the league one year, they're usually there the next (with exceptions given to basic reliever volatility). At this point I'm still not convinced if it tells you that guys
have done well (evaluative stat; not terribly useful going forward) or that they will
continue to do well (predictive stat and much more useful).
Its interesting that fangraphs seems to have finally come on board a bit there; WPA is an amazing stat for evaluating bullpen effectiveness in a rearview, though it remains to be seen how useful it is for projections.