Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch
It's not a crapshoot. We know that because the last 14 years of Pomeroy the avg rank of winner was 2.7 in the country, and 1.8 if you take out the two UCONN runs. One of the elites wins it nearly every year. The only crapshoot is normally which elite it is
Crapshoot is what KU fans say to avoid addressing Bills shortcomings in March. Something he has a golden opportunity to change
|
If you take out my dick and balls, I'd be a chick.
I feel like you rely heavily on stats like Pomeroy numbers to quantify basketball down to clinically comparable realities, and it's simply a fool's errand.
And by the way - what a completely ****ing useless statistic you just gave. Over the last 14 years (arbitrary sample size), the AVERAGE RANK of the winner was nearly the THIRD BEST TEAM (crapshoot for 1 and 2, wouldn't you say?).
And if you remove the two years where it doesn't support my theory, it's even better! (Even though that's literally once out of every 7 years that someone vastly affects this scenario.)
If you want a reason why Self's teams haven't fared as well in the tournament, it's really simple, and I don't need some dude's stats to rely on like holy gospel to explain it:
guards.
That's it.
Guards.
Bill Self has been known for what at KU? The high-low and developing big men, right? It's why every big man that has played for him for multiple years and started has gone to the NBA: Kaun, Jackson, Wright, Arthur, Aldrich, Robinson, Withey, Embiid, Alexander. And probably Diallo, Bragg, and I wouldn't put it past Self to get ****ing LUCAS there.
So, super duper. Big men. It's solid, reliable basketball. And over a large enough sample size, say... the regular season... it returns consistent wins.
But March is more of a crapshoot. It is a single game elimination six times in a row. That means that spikes in luck can have vastly influences on the outcome.
Now... how does that correlate to the game? Simple. The farther out from basket you are, the less percentages are going to remain consistent. There are more variables at play.
It's why Selden can shoot 60% in non-con and then drop down significantly after that. Because outside shooting is streaky. Over the course of a season, sure, it equalizes to a consistent rate, but over six games? Shit, man... anything is possible.
Think about the Ali Faroukmanesh's of the world. Guys who for ONE GAME can shoot like they never have before, taking down a much more talented, consistent team.
March is about guard play, my friend, which is why I am thankful for Bill Self's watershed moment this season, where he realized that he has to change his recruiting strategy. Having two top-level point guards is going to make this team explode in March. If he can deliver on that promise, we are going to have a fantastic run of Final Fours. Because his regular season consistency (high seed) will be matched with guys who can be more consistent both scoring and defending the outlier position, thereby cutting down on flukey events that make March a crapshoot.
If we can score and defend outside, then it makes it less of a crapshoot. you don't have luck (UNI) versus consistency (KU's high/low).
That's how I see it, anyway.
I wonder Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier would agree...