Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
History.
First, very few players ever 'improve' on their breakout season and what are the odds that Houston ever gets better than 22 sacks.
But the biggest concern is the history of injuries and the toll they take. Fluke or no, anytime you go under the knife, your body is fundamentally altered and isn't ever exactly what it was. Now even if you function similarly, the odds of you functioning for as long are diminished. He's now had a couple of knee injuries and sooner or later, those will come back to get him.
He's not old, but he's 27 now and things will start to be just a little harder from this point forward. His body will recover just a little slower. His burst will start to wane just a little bit. It'll be a little harder to keep weight on during the season or maintain his form during the off-season. He's unlikely to hit a wall, but he's probably 2 years away from starting a noticeable decline and if one of those years is impacted by his continued attempts to come back from his knee, then the window to get value from that contract continues to diminish.
And people keep wanting to argue that it's not fair to say he hasn't lived up to his contract - of course it is. This is a snapshot view and to this point he hasn't. Worse still, it was the cheapest year of his deal that he didn't live up to. As his cap figure gets higher and higher, his performance will have to get better and better to compensate for it.
Houston earned his deal. The Chiefs weren't foolish in offering it to him by any means. But there's still a good chance that he simply doesn't live up to it. That's reality.
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10 years ago, you're right.
I'm not sure in the modern medicine world. There's a breaking point age, just as there's always been, but I think it's more 32 33 than 30 anymore.
Especially with how these guys are (specifically houston) in the offseason.