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Old 02-11-2017, 04:48 PM   #1245
kccrow kccrow is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2011
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I've did some thinking about Eric Berry. I just don't think Eric Berry is good enough to be afforded the top contract at the position. I also don't think Mathieu deserved such a hefty contract, and his borders on ridiculous, but he also plays alot of nickle corner for the Cards.

I do however, realize that you have to pay the man and he is one of the better safeties in the game. He's fully within the top 20 in the game against the pass, and top 10 when you look at his overall game versus the run and the pass. I want to say he was tied for 8th in pass breakups by a safety this year and tied for 31st in tackles.

But the point remains, Eric Berry is not the best safety in the game. Do you pay him as such? That's a difficult pill to swallow. His game most closely resembles Devin McCourty, and New England paid him pretty well. If you extrapolate McCourty's values over two years of 8% cap inflation, you come up with about 55.4 million w/ 25.7 guaranteed. If you do the same with Harrison Smith's contract over 1 year of 8% cap inflation, you come up with 55.4 million w/16.5 guaranteed.

So, if I had to expect what the market should dictate regarding Berry, it's $55.4 m and somewhere around 21 m guaranteed. Those numbers are a bit worrisome anyhow, with Berry turning 28 and approaching the twilight years. I think, if I'm John Dorsey, I have a number in mind where I think I can replace a good portion of what Berry does for a significantly lower number. The only thing I can't replace is the leadership, but when leaders leave others step up. I think 55/21 would be my absolute limit. I'm not approaching 12, 13, 14 million per.

After much reflection, I'm not of the opinion that Berry is a HOF player nor should he be the highest paid safety in the league.

I'm no NFL GM, but like NFL GMs, I also realize this is a business. Signing Berry to a lucrative contract is bad business. I think 55/21 as a target number is already conceding a bit on the guy.

I guess we'll see what transpires.
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