Quote:
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower
Let's quantify Mahomes sitting for X amount of time.
Smith has averaged 955 snaps over the last four years which averages out to 60 per game. Further, let's assume that Reid's offense does in fact take over a season for a QB to get a handle of and this can be backed up by looking at Smith's QB rating, such that it took 20 games for Smiths' rating to show a sustained level of average play in earning a rating of at least 80 without instances of earning below an 80 in consecutive or nearly consecutive weeks from that point onward.
In the aforementioned parameters, this would imply Smith became proficient in Reid's offense by the away game to San Diego in 2014, given that he only had four sub-80 performances in the next 32 games. By that point in the season and his 20 game career in Kansas City, Smith had taken 1,310 in-game snaps.
Assuming it'll take Mahomes taking a league average number of snaps (roughly 64 over the last five years) and it will similarly take Mahomes 20 games before it can be reasonably assumed that he has at least average handle on how to manage an Andy Reid offensive game plan.
Therefore if Mahomes sits the entirety of this year, it won't be until maybe the first quarter of the 2019 season before it looks like he's had enough experience to definitively be the starting QB. That also means the FO has less than a full season of play to determine whether or not to exercise his fifth year option.
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In a perfect world scenario PM would get this year to sit and learn.
He would only start next year if Smith is cut/traded or hurt.
Most would agree the largest leap comes in year 3 of a QB starting.
So if PM were to sit we'd have to pick up the 5th year option before seeing his best work.