Quote:
Originally Posted by BigRedChief
I have to agree with this take.
Moving Wacha now is a risk but as for the reasons DJ just laid out, is it really a risk? We know how this ****ing around at the edges has worked out.
Maybe we get "hot" like we did in 2006/2011, but that doesn't seem like a sound winning strategy.
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And I know everyone's hot on Wacha now, and perhaps with good reason.
But if you look at his advanced command numbers (which are admittedly in their infancy) as well as his average pitch quality figures, he's pitching well over his head right now.
He's lost a little more velocity and he's not exactly developed a hammer curve; it's still largely a get-ahead or setup pitch. The cutter has become a solid pitch for him so that's perhaps a new 'true talent' for him. And his changeup has become a genuine out pitch for him. He's a better pitcher than he's been in the past but he's still really just a 1.5 pitch guy who's stuff isn't electric. He's a lot closer to the fine line between success and failure that his present ERA stats suggest he is, IMO.
But let's say this is the new normal for him - you really excited about paying a guy with that crazy shoulder issue of his $18+ million/season for 4-5 seasons? If that stress reaction thing in his shoulder pops up again (and the medical history of it is so short that there's no way to say it will or will not), it's less a "he'll be less effective" thing as it is a "he simply won't be able to pitch in the big leagues" thing.
There are too many red flags around Wacha with too many potentially plus arms already in the system for me to get behind spending a significant percentage of our payroll on him.
Wacha's exactly the kind of guy you should look to deal, IMO. The return for a guy who's pitching well right now with another year of control would be pretty strong. And I know nobody likes the idea of treating your 5th starter as 'just' a 5th starter, but honestly - it's just a 5th starter. Even if Reyes can't get back on the bump this year, you have Gomber and Gant that can absolutely do credible work in that role. Gomber is big league ready but just keeps getting overlooked. He'd be a gem in a lot of system, IMO. That hook of his is a legit major league out pitch and the fastball/changeup combination is't elite but it's good enough to work with that curveball for a legit 3-pitch mix that can give you 175+ quality innings. Make that the 5th arm in a rotation fronted by Martinez, Flaherty, Weaver and Mikolas and you're still in better shape than most teams.
But there's an obvious reason not to - as Hamas pointed out, there are questions marks in the rotation (there are question marks in EVERY rotation). So because there's a reason not to do it, Mozeliak won't, regardless of the reasons that exist to suggest you SHOULD do it.