Quote:
Originally Posted by Jewish Rabbi
Weird how everyone is hitting .400 in Memphis and can’t hit for dick in the majors. Oh wait, no it’s not, Mabry just sucks.
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Mabry probably sucks, yes.
But O'Neill was always going to have issues at the big league level because he has holes all over his swing and Kelly showed serious regression even in AAA this year. Last year I said there was a good chance that Kelly's ceiling was maybe Tucker Barnhart and frankly his ABs this year have suggested that his ceiling may be more like Francisco Pena as a catch and throw backup. He looks baaaaaad and his exposure to Mabry hasn't been enough to create that. Meanwhile Bader's turned himself into a pretty damn versatile offensive weapon and Paul DeJong has done more than I expected.
Some of the offense goes at Mabry's feet, to be sure, but some of it's just a talent issue. And while there are guys like Adams who has hit every place he's been where Mabry wasn't responsible for him, both majors and minors, Grichuk and Diaz have been pretty much shit outside of STL as well. Every bad hitter on his watch hasn't been his fault and he isn't completely without players that have succeeded under him. Hell, Heyward hit better under Mabry than he's hit in Chicago by a ton.
That said, I do think firing Mabry should happen - because at this level I need a reason to keep you rather than a reason to fire you and Mabry's gone 5+ years without giving me good enough reasons to keep him. But I think you're probably just going to get a temporary spike before another lull. You can't turn chicken shit into chicken salad and increasingly I think that's what Mabry is working with.
As advanced as the Cardinals have been in finding under the radar arms, they've been equally behind at finding hitters and it's been a system-wide issue. If the dude somehow manages to **** up Knizner, that's about all I'd need to see. Kizner's just a natural hitter; a lot like Allen Craig. He has the best chance to be a 4+ win player of any of the offensive guys in the system, IMO. You've gotta go all the way down to Palm Beach and look at guys like Dylan Carlson and Evan Mendoza before you see another shot at a real difference maker, IMO. Arozarena and Mercado could maybe become 3+ win players but they're gonna do that in a much different way; similar to Heyward in that they'll derive half or more of their value from defense and baserunning.
In terms of pure hitters, the system just hasn't given Mabry much to work with. And when you have guys like Wong looking like a light bulb went on in 2017 then he shows up in 2018 and can't make solid contact...I have a hard time saying that Mabry ruined him when it was under Mabry that his approach made such great strides last year.
The coaching may well be lacking but the talent is as well.