Quote:
Originally Posted by jd1020
It was Nationals and Brewers.
I said if the Cardinals kept winning against the Dodgers and Rockies I would be impressed.
They are still overachieving, though. Unless you really want to believe Wong is a .900 OPS hitter and Tyler O'Neill is going to carry a 800+ OPS while striking out 40% of the time with what was a .450 BABIP.
About the only Cardinal I expect to continue hitting near where they have been on this streak is maybe Harrison Bader with a slight dip in his BABIP.
And I never said the Reds were good. I said they have a good offense, which they do, and the Cubs have been under performing all year with their starting pitchers and they shut down their offense for the entire series. Reading comprehension.
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If you look at their underlying numbers, their record over the course of the season is almost exactly what it's supposed to be. It's not just Pythagorean, but weighted runs against, etc...
Pretty much every model that looks at how they've performed statistically over the course of the
season says that the Cardinals should be roughly 14-16 games over .500 right now. And yes, that includes recent hot stretches from guys like Wong, but it also includes his cold streaks.
It includes an .800 OPS from O'Neill, but it also includes 4 months of complete ass from Fowler. And while O'Neill may not be this good going forward (assuming that a 23 yr old kid with serious prospect pedigree has no room for growth is a fools errand, but I digress), he doesn't have to be. He simply has to be as good as the combination of what we've gotten from him and Fowler over the first 130 games or so.
Matt Carpenter will not stay that hot, but of late Gyorko has found his groove after a cold first 3 months to supplement him. Jose Martinez has found OF more to his liking defensively so we can keep his bat in there now as well.
You're putting forth a series of stipulations that would make the Cardinals a 105 win team. That's how they've played for the month in question but that's not the mark they need now; they've done that to get themselves back to level ground. Now they can simply play to their regular talent level which the whole season, inclusive of fits and starts, says is roughly a 90 win team.
That'll play. And if you get to October with that and a hot rotation, things can get interesting in a hurry.