Good luck limiting the big plays.
Seriously, it seems like the Chiefs have figured out how to generate big plays when the other big plays are taken away. Add in the fact that Mahomes always has his eyes downfield. The dude throws sideways, across his body, and whatever else he needs to do. When plays break down, other QBs scramble for 4. Mahomes hits somebody for 14.
I would agree, the Pats will likely run some draws and I expect them to be successful.
Houston seems to be 100%. He's been a big force down the stretch. 5 of his 9 sacks happened in December. His last game without a sack was Dec 2 against the Raiders. He had 2 sacks last week too.
Given the way you framed this, let me just say this:
I think that's the difference in the game. In week 6, the Patriots ran the ball well. I see that happening again. In week 6, Mahomes made big plays, especially in the 2nd half. I see that happening again.
However, in week 6, there was no interior penetration and Brady complemented the running game with serious surgical precision. The game winning play was the 39 yard pass to Gronk. THAT is what I don't expect to see again. I think the Chiefs come at Brady like rabid dogs and I think they do enough to slow down Brady, leading to a Chiefs win.