Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
Because the offers they have received aren’t in line with the return they should get for 4.5 years of a 4-5 win player who is going to cost you at most $30 million over that period (and who you can get away from after 3.5/$18.5 million if he falls off a cliff at 33).
It’s easy to say “trade him.” Finding the team with the need and urgency to pay the price is another.
The Royals can and should hold out for a top 30 prospect as the centerpiece, paired with at least one more top 100 guy and an interesting add on or two.
Your Cubs don’t even have the ammo to make that offer, unless you believe Hoerner is a top 30 prospect (I personally don’t and doubt the Royals do). If you asked me about something like Hoerner - Happ - Adzolay, I would say “nah.”
The teams that do have the ammo don’t really have the need right now.
KC will probably get better offers in the offseason when more teams are buying and building. And even then, teams may be loathe to surrender the required centerpiece to the package.
A package built around a single top 100 guy who is in the back half of the lists is not close to enough for KC to make that type of deal.
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I don't think you're getting a top 30 prospect for him because what he's largely a glue guy.
Gorman and Carlson with the Cardinals have probably sneaked their way into the top 30 respectively - but Merrifield's contributions would serve to make the team
better without making them truly outstanding. They're still clearly a tier behind the Dodgers, Yankees and Astros, probably the Twins and maybe Braves as well.
So the Cardinals aren't gonna move Gorman or Carlson for him because it doesn't change their ultimate outcome. And when you say you want a top 30 player AND another top 100 guy, well now you've effectively eliminated the Cardinals from contention as well because Montero, Torres and Nunez are all too green to make top 100 lists. Even Knizner isn't on there.
But the Cardinals damn sure wouldn't give you Gorman AND Montero or Kizner. Because again, it just doesn't change an outcome much.
And I'd argue that the Cardinals could probably use Merrifield as much or more than any team in baseball given their complete lack of a leadoff hitter and his ability to play multiple OF positions in addition to 2b/CI.
He may be a big time WAR guy, but he's the wrong kind of player to engender that kind of return, IMO. He's not ascending, he's not flashy, he has little ceiling left. GMs don't give up top 30 prospects for that kind of player. It just doesn't happen and if that's what Moore is insisting on, I think he's making a mistake.
But if he could get a lotto ticket, a live arm and someone deep in the minors with some upside, that's probably a deal he should consider. Something like Jhon Torres, Junior Fernandez (arrow's pointed way up this year) and Ivan Herrera (super young C w/ ML backup floor given his defensive chops) is probably something he should consider.
Because I don't think anyone really thinks the Royals are going to contend for a WC birth over the next 2-3 seasons, do they? And after that, Merrifield won't have much value left.