Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
I agree with the premise of the return - that to get someone who can be a difference maker for Merrifield - you now need to be looking at the guys who COULD move drastically up the list in the next year. That's where the market has gone.
But there's still an incredible amount of variance in those types of players. And I think that's still the type of talent you're looking at in return for him with three.five years or two years of control left, or even one.five years of control left.
Re: the variance, take Carlson and Khalil Lee and compare the two. They're the same age, have similar toolsets, and had very similar 2018 campaigns (Carlson was .246/.348/.390 at A+ and A in 18, Lee was .263/.348/.390 at A+ and AA). Lee progressed at a solid rate in 2019 but didn't take off like Carlson. Which outcome is more likely when you're working with players like that?
I'm willing to be patient on that. I think you can get someone with that profile as the centerpiece down the road for Merrifield. I wouldn't pull the trigger on something like that now, personally.
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Merrifield already saw his SB plummet from 2018 to 2019 and I saw a stat somewhere showing his speed on the bases has already started to decline. What's to say he doesn't continue to decline? And correct me if I'm wrong, but the last 2 seasons he's had what appears could be an unsustainable BABIP. If he has a season where he comes back closer to the mean and his speed continues to decline he could lose whatever value he had to begin with.