Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch
But that’s how all analytics work - the more PT you get the more value you carry, regardless of whether or not you’re “better” than the backup. It’s assuemd thru 100+ years of sports history that the coaches know better than anyone who’s better and backups in all sports universally get exposed the longer they play
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Not always. DVOA, for instance, oftentimes penalizes a guy for doing his job poorly, even over large numbers. You're a fan of WAR - WAR isn't a strictly positive metric like a counting stat. You can't get a negative RBI; you can get a negative win share.
I think AV is essentially a REALLY rudimentary WAR in that it only ratchets one direction (in practical application anyway). For instance, it's damn near impossible to put up a -AV because AV starts from pure zero rather than average. So unless you get 50 snaps all season and get blasted in tangible ways (missed tackles, fumbles, drops, ints, etc...) you won't yield a negative AV. You can go out there, rack up snaps, get beat constantly but not tangibly and still put up a solid AV. With stuff like VORP or DVOA, that doesn't happen. To get a negative VORP, you can play poorly. To get a negative AV, you have to be so bad that your team would effectively be better playing 11 on 10 vs. having you on the field.
AV just isn't very advanced at all. It's not completely useless, but there are far better places to look.