Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
I think you're overestimating the value of Arenado given his contract.
Everyone uses surplus value as the key component to team building these days. Arenado at market rates (virtually identical contract to Rendon) carries very little surplus value. Anybody that wanted to pay that kind of money to a premier 3b had their shot at Rendon.
So why would a team now give up Carlson (with LOADS of surplus value) to acquire him?
I'd like to think that Mozeliak learned an important lesson with the Goldschmidt deal. You can take on a big contract or you can give up significant prospect capital to acquire surplus value. But you cannot give up significant prospect capital to acquire a big contract.
And we won't. Honestly, the kind of deal I can see happening is something built around Arenado, Gorman, Bader, an arm and a dead weight contract like Fowler, Carpenter or both.
Unless the Phillies get involved with Alec Bohm and drive the bidding up, I think the Cardinals could get Arenado at a largely revenue neutral price point for the next 2 years at the cost of Gorman and some depth.
Look at it this way - the Cardinals are probably updside down on Carpenter and Fowler by, what, $45 million? They're on the hook for roughly $72 million on those 2 guys over the next 2 years. If both of them were FAs and were able to finagle 2 year deals, you think they'd get $30 million combined between them? Fowler's OBP and Carpenter's 2018 might get them in that neighborhood.
So if they're both included in the deal you need to get $45 million or so in Surplus value. Nolan Gorman slots in at somewhere around $30 million in discounted surplus value (there will be a little variance in there, but that's a fair landing spot). Obviously he could blow that out of the water or fall short of it, but that's the discounted nature of projections on prospects.
Bader probably carries about $20 million in surplus value because his variance is so much lower than Gormans. He WILL produce wins because his glove is steady and he's fast. He'll be worth about 3 wins/season over a full season because of his defense alone and with 4 seasons of control, that'll carry some value. Moreover, he's especially well suited for Colorado given their massive OF and the fact that breaking balls (his El Guapo) don't break as well there.
Then you give them a dude that throws hard with movement like Junior Fernandez who should play nicely there to provide some of the bullpen help their historically trash bullpen needs.
So you're at roughly $50 million in surplus value at that point. Probably $45-$55 depending on the value placed on Fernandez and Gorman or any premium placed on Bader's defense in a massive OF.
And Arenado's surplus value, especially with his opt-out potentially locking you into a bad deal if he struggles away from Colorado or costing you more money in 2 years if he doesn't, is something near zero given his market contract.
So if your $50 million in surplus value offsets the $45 million you're underwater on Fowler/Carpenter then you've now balanced the scales almost perfectly. In the process, the Rockies get the high ceiling young asset they'll need to get in an Arenado deal, they'll get a CFer that profiles extremely well for their park and an arm that fits them as well and they'll remove any long-term contractual risk should Arenado get hurt or decline in the later years of his deal if he doesn't opt out (not to mention the prospect capital they'd retain instead of him if he DOES opt out).
That deal on its face seems absurd, but when you dig into the actual value of these guys and their contracts, it really isn't.
I'm gonna give you guys the same warning I did when the Goldschmidt deal went down - you DO NOT ignore surplus value. When everyone was saying we 'fleeced' the D-Backs I was about the lone voice saying we overpaid and by a fair margin.
If the Cardinals can get Arenado for something along the lines of Gorman, Bader, Fernandez, Fowler and Carpenter - do it. If you have to give up much more than that, you're losing the deal and if you can't clear those 2 bad contracts in surrendering those assets, you're losing it BADLY.
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