Quote:
Originally Posted by O.city
Thanks for the update. Is Carlson more of can't miss type?
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Classic ceiling v. floor.
Gorman has a little more potential to be a true superstar, IMO, because he has the kind of power that creates enough fear in pitchers to yield a .400 OBP if he'll just let guys walk him. But that's the rub - will he?
Carlson, OTOH, has less raw power but may have more game power because he has a far better hit tool. He's also faced advanced pitching and done quite well against it. I'd say he's probably a better OFer than Gorman is an IFer, but in the end their respective defensive contributions will be in the margins of each other either way.
I have a hard time being terribly objective on Carlson because he's a guy I was calling 2 years ago as a dude who was going to explode onto the scene. I REALLY liked his approach even when the numbers weren't there, especially for a guy playing up a level. I'm wrong often enough on these young guys that when I peg someone like Carlson or Flaherty, I tend to develop a bit of a crush.
Yes, Carlson carries significantly more value because his variance is WAY lower. Is that 'can't miss'? Depends on your definition. Is he a guaranteed All-Star in the Ronald Acuna mold? Nope. Is he going to play in the major leagues? Yup.
If you're asking if I would personally guarantee that he will one day start 150 games and put up an average or better wRC+ in that span, I'd tell you no, I won't bet my life on it. But I'd probably give you 2-1 odds if you wanted to make the bet with me. He's as safe a bet to be a solid major league regular as you'll find in the minor leagues right now. He's a prospect built on a near complete absence of flaws more than he is a slew of standout tools.
But if you get a minute, find a video of his swing from the left side. It sure is purty. Nice high release and great torque through the middle that just does it for me.