[duncan_idaho]

I know DJ's last post said no real analysis was needed... but here's some analysis.

The Titans are really efficient in the red zone. Awesome is a fair descriptor. But what does that mean for KC's game with them on Sunday?

I thought it would be interesting to compare the Chiefs' red zone success since the bye - when Mahomes' ankle finally was mostly healed and he started becoming a threat with his legs again, which coincided with an uptick in red zone efficiency - with the Titans since Tannehill became the QB1. Here's what I've got:


Red Zone TD percentage: 71 percent (would rank second in league over whole season)

Red Zone possessions/game: 4.8

Points/Red Zone possession: 6.5

4/6 teams the Chiefs played had a better red zone D than the Titans. (Texans and Raiders). KC scored TDs on 11/13 of those plays with its only empty red zone possession since the bye being a failed run on 4th and 1 against Oakland.

The Titans are dynamite in the red zone with Tannehill - they converted 83 percent of red zone possessions into TDs, which is excellent. They also turn it over in the red zone more than KC - 4 RZ turnovers in this stretch to 1 for KC.

That means their points/red zone possession is actually lower than KC’s (it’s 6.0 in this stretch).

And they also don’t GET THERE as often as KC. 2.8 red zone touches/game with Tannehill as QB. 2 fewer per game.

We can talk about their efficiency in the red zone all we want. But at the end of the day, recent trends show KC getting 31 PPG from red zone possessions versus 17 for the Titans.

And have we even talked about Tannehill’s higher likelihood for turnovers and sacks?

Tannehill has been sacked 2.5 times a game and turned the ball over 1.2 times a game. He’s sacked on 10 percent of his pass attempts, throws an INT on 2 percent, and fumbles on 2 percent.

Compare that to Mahomes, who was sacked just 3.4 percent of the time (hobbled from weeks 1-12 and playing behind a makeshift OL), throws an INT on 1 percent of drop backs and fumbles 0.4 percent of the time.

So Tannehill is sacked 3x as much and turns it over 3x as much as Mahomes.