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Old 03-02-2020, 09:10 AM   #404
Donger Donger is offline
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Originally Posted by Rain Man View Post
I agree with Wazu on this. To calculate the death rate, we don't include cases that are not yet concluded by either death or recovery, because we don't yet know their outcomes. To calculate the death rate, we divide deaths by (deaths plus recoveries), which gives me 6.3 percent.
That isn't how it's calculated. It's called case fatality rate, if memory serves, and it's deaths divided by total cases. And, yes, it varies. If using just known outcomes, you could also say that ~50% of those who contract the virus (90,000 and 45,000) recover. We better hope that the recovery rate (when known) ends up being better than ~50%, because that will mean ~50% deaths.
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