Quote:
Originally Posted by Rain Man
What we know now is that it's a minimum of 3.4%. If everyone with an open case survives, it's 3.4%. If everyone with an open case dies, it's 49.1%. Based on what we see with closed cases, the best bet is 6.3%. But as noted earlier, it'll likely vary due to some issues like timing of the virus arrival in different areas and whether those Chinese precincts are accurately reporting deaths.
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All of that still leaves out what is likely to be a large number of people who are infected but otherwise just treat it as a cold or who don't show any symptoms. Obviously the death rates are concerning, but you can't really compare it to similar numbers from the flu until people actually have time to study it in detail.
I haven't seen any estimates from experts that think the true death rate is above 1%.