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Been saying this since January -- if C19 is as easy to pass around as it seems and if you can pass it along while being asymptomatic and if you can be asymptomatic for up to two weeks before and four weeks after you are symptomatic then it is next to impossible to contain at this point.
As far as what the medical system can support in terms of sick people we will reach a breaking point fairly quickly (a few months) unless it burns out because of summer or some change occurs that makes it less likely to cause hospitalization.
This is all just math at this point. If it exponentially expands as it has in other countries then it's hard times ahead. If it can be curbed like China claims they've done or if summer slows it then the spread will be curtailed. I doubt China is having the level of success they claim since there is little that can be done to stop community spread (but for some reason they've miraculously stopped it) but maybe taking draconian measures can work. Unfortunately, pulling people out of homes and sticking them into boxes to be shipped to quarantine centers isn't likely to happen here.
I do think the virus stands a great chance of being slowed when summer arrives and since it is really breaking out so late in what would typically be a flu season then we may dodge the bullet above. SARS/MERS was resilient to this seasonal change so the similarities may unfortunately not follow the typical flu, but if it does then we'll hopefully get another six months of runway to get closer to a vaccine. Until then, expect life to change in some reasonable ways while we try to cope with the stress this puts on the health care system, commerce, and life in general.
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