Originally Posted by RINGLEADER
8 weeks = 56 days
Typical unrestrained rate of doubling approx once every 4 days
Fourteen doubling events
Starting with 1,000 infected:
Day 4= 2,000
Day 8 = 4,000
Day 12 = 8,000
Day 16 = 16,000
Day 20 = 32,000
Day 24 = 64,000
Day 28 = 128,000
Day 32 = 256,000
Day 36 = 512,000
Day 40 = 1,024,000
Day 44 = 2,048,000
Day 48 = 4,096,000
Day 52 = 8,192,000
Day 56 = 16,384,000
There are all kinds of gaps in the data that relate to mortality/etc but this is just math. Could it be slightly lower or higher? Sure. Will mitigation and social distancing and herd immunity stunt the spread? Of course. But, again, the figures cited - while most likely worst case - are not out of the realm of possibility if the spread is left unrestricted.
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