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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER
We had 5K cases today. Putting aside how much of that is backlogged tests let’s assume it’s accurate for today. By next weekend we’ll be seeing 20,000 cases per day and the weekend after that around 40,000 per day — unless they can slow the transmission by keeping everyone behind closed doors. At 40,000 new cases per day, if the same averages other countries are experiencing are also experienced here, that would be around 4,000 hospitalizations daily and hundreds of deaths (if not thousands). Boom goes the health care system.
Again, this is all just math at this point and it is math that we’ve already experienced. The infections here are not the same as China or S Korea. If social distancing works you’ll slow that doubling down considerably over time but when I was out to pick up mail earlier there were still restaurants open in the valley and people hanging out at a lounge next to it. It just doesn’t seem to sink in with some how dire this can become and how fast it can get here.
Really hope the math is proven wrong and/or that closing everything down works.
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I worry about what happens with our ventilator supply. There will be a ton of collateral damage in our health care system if we are not able to slow down this virus.
Many people need ventilator help for reasons unrelated to COVID-19. My dad needed ventilator help for about 48 hours a number of years ago. He made an amazing recovery, but the ventilator was very important for his survival in early hours of being in the hospital. His pulse was very low and he was losing a lot of blood, on his way to death. The ventilator played a critical role in helping him recover.
The situation with my dad is just one of so many examples out there that are happening every day in our health care system. We cannot afford to let COVID-19 become so widespread that it causes a bunch of collateral damage fatalities in the health care system due to a shortage of ventilators.