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Originally Posted by RINGLEADER
We had 5K cases today. Putting aside how much of that is backlogged tests let’s assume it’s accurate for today. By next weekend we’ll be seeing 20,000 cases per day and the weekend after that around 40,000 per day — unless they can slow the transmission by keeping everyone behind closed doors. At 40,000 new cases per day, if the same averages other countries are experiencing are also experienced here, that would be around 4,000 hospitalizations daily and hundreds of deaths (if not thousands). Boom goes the health care system.
Again, this is all just math at this point and it is math that we’ve already experienced. The infections here are not the same as China or S Korea. If social distancing works you’ll slow that doubling down considerably over time but when I was out to pick up mail earlier there were still restaurants open in the valley and people hanging out at a lounge next to it. It just doesn’t seem to sink in with some how dire this can become and how fast it can get here.
Really hope the math is proven wrong and/or that closing everything down works.
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The math isn't correct or else China would have been 100% infected more than a month ago instead of declining and back to normal for the most part.
Its not an exponential curve. There is a limit to how many people each person comes into contact with inside their social circle. Thats why social distancing is effective.