[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by oaklandhater

People are NOT socially distancing themselves at the Cherry Blossoms this year...
Despite the headlines
despite the warnings
despite the climbing cases of #coronavirus
despite the posted signs.
NPS is not closing the Tidal Basinhttps://t.co/owad7X2Ffr pic.twitter.com/z4i5vFn6Vv

— Mike Valerio (@MikevWUSA) March 21, 2020

this is why a shutdown is going to have to come down from on high.

Shutting things down and building more ventilators are the only real weapons we have absent some new anti-viral therapy. This is all math at this point. The number of victims in the number of places are consistent enough to show that:

Current infected x
Number of times daily infections double in 14 days =
Total Cumulative Infected x
20% who require hospitalization x
25% of hospitalized who require life support =
Number who need ventilators -
Number of ventilators available x
75 to 90% =
Total Deaths

Only thing we can currently change, absent some new treatment, is the rate of new infections (by sheltering in place) and number of ventilators available.