[Fat Elvis]

Originally Posted by RINGLEADER

They’ve ticked up to just slightly more than yesterday.

But both the current CA and NY numbers are amazingly good news if they stay that way the rest of the day. Almost know day over day increase. As I posted before, if NY can stay under 5800 today (and tomorrow at this rate) then they will have slowed it from doubling every two days to doubling every week and at that rate they should have enough ventilators and beds to fight it.

The next area of need must be PPE/supplies but if we’re looking for a silver lining this is pure gold.

I will leave this here; it is from someone in local government in NY that just posted it in a private Facebook group I belong to about 15 minutes ago:

Well, the "good news" (I am doing my Professor Farnsworth voice) is we only had 34 new cases today (noon to noon) in our region (4 counties of the Capital District, Albany and environs). The bad news is this is because they stopped testing three days ago because they're out of tests -- presumably being held downstate in NYC which is in an emergency right now -- and these are just the cases that finally came back at the end of their stack. It's bad. I calculated before the testing ground to a trickle that we'd be hitting 1% infection rate within the week.

Locally I've got four in-real-life friends with a positive diagnosis, and there's another six or seven family members who are symptomatic and haven't been tested. There's a sort of shelter-in-place request by medical providers to not come in unless symptoms worsen, since there's nothing to be done for mild cases and you can't flood the zone right now without stressing out healthcare for everybody else. Everybody I know is pretty damn cooperative right now, and fortunately nobody's gravely ill just yet, although a couple are somewhat distressingly MIA from reporting in the last day.

Statewide we're doubling every two days. No sign of an inflection point at all; it's been steady exponential growth and we should be hitting 100,000 statewide in 3 or 4 days depending on how craptaculous the testing situation is. The growth rate is the same inside the NYC metro area and outside -- again, tested cases. I have no idea how other regions of the state are doing testing wise but there are now cases in *every* single county in New York and new ones reported overnight in all but five (and those are all small rural counties). There's no containment -- there's no place to contain it except by statewide shutdown, which may have come two weeks too late given the apparent incubation period.

There's three dozen positives at Riker's Island, one of the worst holes in the country (cue Dostoevsky) for a plain old municipal jail and a place that should have been burned to the ground fifty years ago and replaced by smaller, specialized jails closer to neighborhoods. A friend of a friend in corrections relays they're doing NO testing in the upstate state prisons as yet, it's clearly taken root, and the prison populations are getting restive (there's cell phones on the inside everywhere, they know what's going on) and the guards are backing off.