Quote:
Originally Posted by petegz28
How many of those 10,000 cases are mild? How many of those cases are people at risk? The only reason the number of cases is higher that it was 8 days ago is because we tested. We are still running at well below half the global death rate.
See the problem in your math? You're being too ****ing literal. There are countless variables you are not and are unable to take in. If I had to take a guess I would say of the 10,000 cases 125 will die bases on current death rate.
Your math assumes nothing but continuation along a linear curve with 0 variables.
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No. I’m talking about the next two to three weeks. That increase is baked in given the time from exposure to infection.
Tell me how many of the 10,500 infected today you think will die? If you think it is closer to 1% because of the reasons you gave then you’re saying that there will be half as many dead a week from now then today.
I’m not trying to convince you of anything. I hope you’re right. There’s just zero evidence from anywhere to support your conclusion. That doesn’t mean you might not be right either.