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Originally Posted by petegz28
I hope so too. I think we are going to continue seeing an increase in cases but a decrease in deaths per case.
I also think For every person tested positive there are probably 2-3 walking around with little or no symptoms and will never be tested if not more.
The whole battle right now aside from those at risk for death, is preventing a mass run on the hospitals. New York is probing to be at bit of an anomaly compared to most of the rest of the country and I think we can explain why.
And, as cruel as it sounds, as I stated before, there is a certain number of people who are at higher risk for death. If they unfortunately die that number decreases so that drastically changes the math.
From what I have heard from the leaders at our health system is we just have to keep it manageable. Meaning we have to make sure we have beds, ventilators, PPE, etc.
This virus is not going to go away. We just have to bide our time until we are in a better position to deal with it via vaccines, etc.
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Completely agree with you that there could be 100 people walking around for everyone that is reported as infected (that’s why I was making that distinction). That’s not the number to look at. You also are probably correct that over time the actual death rate in reported numbers will go down — EXCEPT if you max out the health care system. Then the 12.2% death rate doubles.
That’s why we have to slow the spread to reduce the cases and, as a consequence, reduce the death percentage that is applied to those numbers from a week ago.
There’s no rocket science coming from my side. But the math is not accruing to our favor.