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Originally Posted by carlos3652
I’m glad we are tracking lower on average trend - but still sucks.
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We’re tracking about two days behind if you blend the last two days then today’s number was only 6 off.
I’m actually revising the percentages of each group by day and comparing against the eventual actual deaths that can be extrapolated by day and group. We’ll be over 1,000 deaths middle of next week based on what I’m seeing. Don’t really want to update this (what’s the point) but if we are able to stay under the ventilator limits I’d guess we are now at a rate just slightly higher than 11%. If we run out of ventilators that number will edge into Italy territory (around 20% dying).
Again, caveat is that high number is not reflective of the actual death rate, just the rate of reported cases that die.
Still believe the asymptomatic and unreported cases that are mild and never get hospitalized are 50% to 90% of the total cases depending on who you listen to.