Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcellus
Its also worth noting that apparently yesterday's spike in deaths was related to Sunday's reporting being inaccurate due to NY not reporting completely on Sunday. If you average the 2 days its 468 and its a decrease from Saturday.
|
Yeah, something about NY's Sunday numbers never sat right anyway.
Expecting the bottom to fall out over a 24 hour period just defies common sense and the law of large numbers.
We'll see a continued decline in growth rates, then we'll see a decline in growth, then we'll see what people are truly looking for and that's the decline in raw numbers.
We're still on the uphill side and while doing that, we need to be looking at rates of growth (doubling, etc...) as signs of progress. And if anything pops up in that period that looks like an outlier, it almost certainly is.
And what's also been interesting is that it appears to this point that these deaths are due to the disease as a whole, not capacity issues. I've seen no indications yet that hospitals are being forced to leave patients to die or anything. Thus far our capacity has been taxed, but not broken.
Definitely a positive thing. And seeing as how NY remains something of a worst case scenario (in terms of factors contributing to spread combined w/ raw population size), I think that's a really good sign regarding our ability to stay in front of this.
But NY is going to have to come up with a battle plan that is completely different from pretty much the rest of the country. I'm not sure what they'll need to do going forward, but if 30 days from now the US is looking for ways to try to wake back up, NY has to find a different path because they'll explode again.