Quote:
Originally Posted by Chiefs4TheWin
Going to get worse before it gets better for sure.
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It's just frustrating to try to plow through the noise.
Because the curve 'bends' when growth rates decline, right? And if you go back to, say, March 22 - there are a lot of days where you see gains in day over day growth. Numbers are getting bigger, obviously, but their percentage growth is getting smaller. Part of that is a larger N, but again - that's a simple reality of flattening a curve. It's a necessary first step towards stalling growth outright and a clear sign of progress.
The problem with trying to extrapolate meaningful information though, is the reporting. Put it day over day and there are a lot of 8-9% increases in growth. There are a few 2-4% increases in growth. And then there are 3 days w/ 21, 22 and 29% increases in growth.
Well shit - that has to be signal noise, right? It isn't as though one day there was ACTUALLY a 2% increase in growth and the next a 22% increase in growth. It was a reporting/testing thing.
So the best you can do is plot the whole damn thing and get yourself a trend line. I went ahead and did it and we
are showing an improved trendline in growth rate. The trendline has it cut roughly in half over that 10 day period.
But its undeniably true that things will continue to get worse before they get better. Day over day raw number growth is probably going to continue to get worse for a period of time nationwide. But so long as that growth
rate trendline continues down, you're continuing to bend the models and make progress. Now done exponentially or logarithmically you can see the trendline flattening out a bit later in it curve so we may see slower gains there in the relatively near term, but we're still seeing gains. And 10 data points aren't enough for a whole lot of information, but if I had added additional days on the front side, those were major growth days that will only steepen the curve and I think incorrectly.
There simply isn't going to be a VC day where we have a clear victory over Coronavirus. It's gonna be a slog.