Thread: News ***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
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Old 04-02-2020, 01:45 PM   #15524
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SAUTO View Post
CNN reporting that the model that was at 83k yesterday is now at 94k deaths...
Man, when the shaded area (your uncertainty level) pegs you at somewhere between 40K deaths and 180K deaths...what is even being provided?

That model isn't saying "best case is 40K, worst is 180K" it's saying "this model says its gonna fall somewhere between these levels..." and then putting a line in the center.

It's the margin for error. If a model can't give me a projection that doesn't yield outcomes 4 orders of magnitude apart...maybe just don't lean into that one.

It's essentially saying "our model projects that the Chiefs will win somewhere between 4 games and 15 games next season, so we're gonna project 10..."

Well thanks, guys. Not gonna be rushing to Vegas with that information.
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