Quote:
Originally Posted by TwistedChief
Here's how I'd think about it:
There is no denying that the economic cost of the shutdown is devastating and almost certainly magnitudes moreso than the health-related costs of the virus itself. In a simplistic world, if there were no economic cost to the shutdown, one would assume the authorities would keep things on lockdown until they had fully stamped out the virus or developed a vaccine which no doubt would take over a year. So, if and when restrictions are eventually lifted and things are deemed 'copacetic' in the next several months, one can pretty logically conclude that it's not because there's an all-clear on the virus itself. But rather, the cost/benefit of keeping the economy shut down versus the risks of the virus have become slightly more balanced. But for people like myself who have a wife with a weak immune system, a newborn, and a mother with severe respiratory issues, am I going to resume my normal day-to-day interactions with others? Not a chance. Are there going to be lingering waves of re-infections? Absolutely. Is this going to act as an overhang on our economy? For sure.
I 100% agree that when the restrictions are lifted a lot of people will want to get out and resume their normal life, but I think that will at best come in bits and pieces. And airline travel is about the last thing that they're going to want to do at that point.
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From a micro-standpoint, there are lots of examples of people that will not, or should not, risk travel (your specific situation included). My belief is that, if the announcement was made tomorrow that it's "all clear and safe to travel", the 1.1M Americans that fly for business each day, and vast majority of casual flyers will do the same. So, it's not a matter of "if", but "when" the all clear is given. I believe that April, May, and June are going to be the 3 months of hell, and from there, things will start to open up. and when it doesn't, people will be more than itching to get back to business. For there to be a 2 year recovery, I'd think there would have to be at least another 12 months of restriction, and I just cannot see that happening....