[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

They're weathermen putting their heads out the windows and telling you if it's raining.

There's not a single model that has proven useful throughout this. Remember the IMHE assumed successful social distancing and originally had NYC at greater than 70,000 hospitalized today.

They 'updated' their model yesterday and they're still off by 80%.

Again - these models haven't proven remotely useful or accurate at any step in this process. They have uncertainly levels so broad as to make them 'body sized' targets at best and even THEN they can't hit the target. They had 4 or 5 standard deviations between the top and bottom of their uncertainty curves and were STILL outside their margins.

They were trash. They provided NOTHING to the conversation.

Remember about 4 days ago when I punched numbers in excel and posted them on here with nothing more than a logarithmic best fit line and said "hey, the curve's already started to flatten a bit? and you can see it continuing to trend that direct?"

That was a GARBAGE attempt at any sort of useful statistical analysis and it was better than what we've gotten from the IMHE model. You could just punch those numbers in, map growth rates and see that we were turning a corner.

I just do not understand why we insist on pretending those things have added to the dialogue.

Models worked when you consider the fact they persuaded executive governments to shut down public activities.