Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
How about we just have enough patience to see if this really is the peak. And if it is the peak, from there we have enough patience to coast down the other side of the peak until we put out the first to a great extent. And from there, we can work much harder on isolating and contact tracing any new cases that pop up as we gradually open up with greater social distancing and use of PPE in public.
Patience. This is NYC getting to and over the peak, hopefully. It's not every region in the country.
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I think a whole lot of people were busting their ass trying to do this early on in this outbreak and still couldn't do it. What additional tools are going to surface that suddenly make it more likely later on?
First blush is that yes, heavy testing, both fast-response infection and serological, combined with significant contact tracing and isolation efforts is the best path forward.
But as you think more and more about the numbers involved and the scope of that endeavor, it just seems less and less feasible when you're still at an N north of 300 million.
So we just ride this coaster up and down for a year? Hoping that every hill is just a little smaller because of a reduced N and increased ability to test/isolate?
I don't think that takes human nature into account very well...