Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
Your N isn't 300 million. Your actual N is anyone with a confirmed infection and their contacts, which makes it much more manageable (similar to what SK did).
You reduce the R0 by implementing the distancing measures and utilizing masks in public to a far greater extent. If you have greater mask wearing in public, you have less exposure, which then makes it easier to track and trace.
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SK was able to do that because they had that one super-isolated outbreak that gave them a much more clearly defined starting point.
I just don't see that happening here. We're gonna need dozens of similarly outfitted and capable 'response teams' to pull of anything approaching that.
Again, just seems far-fetched to me. You're looking at an unprecedented level of man-power and intervention. And even then, it's only slowed for as long as all of those measures remain in place; so years. The 'N' isn't necessarily the people you're 'investigating' but rather their contacts. Those remain unwieldy unless you maintain things at the level they are now (which then again gets back to definitions; how do you define your 'social distancing' measures above? And for how long?).
I'd like it to work - sure. I simply don't think it can. Not on this scale and not for any appreciable period of time.