Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
If the R0 is less than 1, the virus dies out. That's the entire point behind all of the distancing measures--give the hospitals time to cope with the influx of the already infected, and break the spread to the point where the virus isn't spreading fast enough to propagate. From there, implement stricter controls as you open society back up to keep any other flareups limited and the R0 as low as possible.
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It will die out (in theory) over an extraordinary timeline. And if we haven't been able to do that with literally dozens (hundreds) of infectious diseases, why should we expect we can here? Shit, HIV has an R0 around 2 and it's a hell of a lot harder to get than this is.
Again, I don't think that's the plan because it simply never has been.
And because of the novel nature of this one, it's going to even more difficult/impossible to pull off. I mean getting it below 2 seems plenty doable, but the idea that we're putting policies in place with the idea of driving it below 1 over any timeline of less than 2-3 years seems completely out there to me. That's ambitious to the point of folly.