Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
Tell me more about the IMHE models, fellas...
https://twitter.com/justin_hart/stat...02742977695744
Remember - these assumed social distancing was in place. These weren't the 'do nothing, worst case scenario' projections. And they only missed the mark in Alabama by a factor of 13.
Great models we're working from here.
NY -- from 75K to 25K (still way off)
Cal -- from 10K to 5K
Alabama -- from 26K to less than 2.
Colorado -- from 8300 peak to less than 500
Lousiana peak from 7400 to less than 1,000
State over state over state. They weren't missing by 25% or even 100% in most cases. They're missing in many cases by 5-6 orders of magnitude. I mean it's beyond any reason at all. Throw numbers in a ****ing hopper and pull them out and you wouldn't have been worse off.
Just remarkably awful and THIS is what we were basing decisions off of. |
I am glad they are showing way less. It has to be almost impossible to do a virus model because it is not like you can see this thing moving around and who has it or doesn't.
It is like the HINI numbers, they said 60 million Americans had it but they are guessing on that number. There is no way it was that high.