Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
I mentioned it early on, but the best guess I have is that they assumed erratic behavior patterns rather than the fact that people have routines.
To use that domino thing they liked to do they kept assuming that any time a domino was removed in a chain via social distancing, it stayed removed. But anytime a domino was removed due to illness or isolation, another domino just popped into its place. It presumed behavior patterns that would yield identical likelihoods of bumping into a completely novel party when in fact, nearly all of us see the same handful of people every day. Pop a few of them out and we don't just go find someone else to bump into - the chain simply breaks.
Once a little more information emerged on the Imperial College trash, it suddenly made sense. They depended on an exponential growth model that required erratic human behavior. Humans don't behave erratically.
Just another example of math saying one thing when human behavior says another. Theory over practice. Again and again and again that's where we're screwing up here.
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This exact thing was pointed out weeks ago which is why the growth curve isn't exponential regardless of what steps you take.