Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
I'm complaining because it was lazy and ineffective decision-making that was obvious in real-time.
This idea that "well nobody could've expected them to be off by that much" is folly. Yes, that could absolutely have been predicted and WAS. Moreover, instead of doubling down on their decisions based on 'evidence' that was proven faulty in real time, they could've adjusted to it.
I'm not criticizing outcomes, I'm criticizing process. There is no other discipline but politics that would try to defend how this was handled. It was a horrid approach.
Just chalking anything up to an 'abundance of caution' and excusing a wretched approach simply shouldn't fly. Somehow our response is immune to any kind of analysis? Suddenly any benefit, no matter how small, is worth any cost? That's absurd.
Shit, we still don't know if some of these measures were counterproductive because of the number of levers we tried to pull at the same time. There's still evidence to suggest that closing schools down provides little impact on spread but could make impacts worse.
Again - these outcomes weren't hard to predict at all but everyone was busy shouting over anyone who said "hey, maybe there are a dozen reasons we aren't Italy and that Imperial College model sure looks shaky as shit..." because they were scared and irrational.
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An abundance of caution is done absolutely all the time in medicine. It's the foundation of halting the spread of disease.
Have a patient with suspected TB on the floor and they're immediately moved to negative pressure isolation and everyone that comes in contact with them is wearing masks, goggles, gloves, gowns, and booties.
Now, imagine you have thousands of patients with suspected TB, but you can't identify them quickly, and they've been interacting with thousands of other people. You don't have time to parse information to identify a perfect model, because even the most prominent statisticians in the country will admit and have continually said that building these models is incredibly hard.