[dirk digler]

for those wondering on the IHME model they did start out using China data but new info and how well the social distancing is working made them adjust their model.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/healt...del/index.html

When the model was first released, the only place that had reached its coronavirus "peak" was Wuhan, China, according to the IHME researchers.

But as of Monday, seven locations in Spain and Italy appear to have reached their apexes as well, providing a flood of new data for the model to analyze.

Those regions seem to have reached their peaks more quickly in the wake of social distancing measures, according to the researchers. That means that some states -- such as Florida, Virginia, Louisiana and West Virginia -- are now expected to hit their peaks earlier than previously expected, potentially giving them less time to prepare.

Beyond infusing the model with new data, researchers tweaked its methodology to better predict the spread of the virus in states that have seen few cases. And they also fine-tuned their analysis of social distancing measures after noticing that certain measures -- such as school closures -- appeared more impactful in some places than others.

Every state, and even regions within each state, have looked at the White House's guidance on non-essential travel differently, Murray said at a press conference on Monday.

Based on cell phone mobility data, for example, researchers found that "there's variability across state[s] in how mandates are being interpreted." Moving forward, researchers plan to explore whether incorporating that data will further improve predictions, Murray said.

On Thursday, for example, the model predicted that patients who needed intensive care would only stay in the hospital for eight days until being discharged. Now, they're expected to be hospitalized for 20. But patients who didn't need intensive care were originally thought to need a 15-day stay, compared to just over a week now.

As more data becomes available, those estimates -- like all of the model's projections -- will change. And importantly, they're based on the ongoing assumption that social distancing measures will continue for months, and will be implemented in places that have yet to do so.

According to Murray, the model's maker, the consequences could be dire if social distancing measures are relaxed or ignored: "The US will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater and the economic costs will continue to grow."