Thread: News ***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***
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Old 04-08-2020, 08:51 AM   #18244
DaFace DaFace is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marcellus View Post
The original model had Missouri peaking at around 340 deaths per day, the new one is 17 per day with a total of ~500 now.

To say they got it wrong is like saying the Bears probably shouldn't have taken Trubisky over Mahomes.
I don't think we can evaluate "got it wrong" yet. Their revised model showed Colorado deaths peaking a few days ago and a prediction of yesterday of 14. Instead, 29 died. Whether that means that yesterday was an outlier or the model is now way too LOW remains to be seen.

All we can really conclude is that models are highly volatile and should be used with a grain of salt.
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