Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief
My understanding is that it is not based on any hard data at all. It is based on going back over the data and finding a figure that fits the reality. Actually it's a whole set of figures that are adjusted to make the models' algorithms fit the data.
You start with an educated guess and adjust as more hard data comes in. The problem is that (as shown by an alternate model in the UK) you can have vastly different models that fit with the limited data we have at this point.
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I'm sure that we all would love to have nothing but hard data, but that's not realistic. Call me crazy, but I just don't believe that there's anything nefarious going on here. They just seem to be doing the best they can with what they have. And no, I'm not saying that that is what you're doing. Others are, however.