Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger
I'm sure that we all would love to have nothing but hard data, but that's not realistic. Call me crazy, but I just don't believe that there's anything nefarious going on here. They just seem to be doing the best they can with what they have. And no, I'm not saying that that is what you're doing. Others are, however.
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I would agree by and large they are doing the best they can with terrible data, which unfortunately is the core of any model worth using. The only thing I will add is they most certainly have a degree of fudge in their projections. Far easier to defend why you overestimated something as opposed to underestimating something when lives are at risk. By and large a model in which actual data is not falling within the upper and lower range of a projection is a really bad model.