Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
If you practice enough distancing to lower the effective R0 of the virus to less than one, you will reach a peak sooner with fewer cases because the virus is being transmitted to less than one additional person for every infection, and thus, cannot sustain itself past the incubation and convalescent period.
|
You can also fit the data by increasing the assumed R0 and assuming a much higher infected rate and a much lower severity for the virus, that is what one of the UK models did. I have no clue which is correct but let's be honest and recognize that there are VASTLY disparate models that can fit the data we currently have. As we get more data that will obviously change. Serology tests would be a HUGE benefit right now in regards to having much more accurate data. (Yes, I'm going to keep beating that dead horse)