Quote:
Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
If the most recent number is to be believed, an R0 of 5.7 would require 82% (IIRC) of the population to be infected to reach herd immunity. That would lead to a tremendously high peak if the virus is even close to as virulent as currently believed. Given what we've seen from isolated examples of a moderate sample size (cruise ships), such a contrastingly low severity of the virus is less likely.
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So, your belief in one model over the other (even though either can fit the data) is based on what we have seen happen on cruise ships. That is as good a basis as any but it could still be a bad assumption. What were the demographic breakdowns? Pretty sure cruise ship passengers skew MUCH higher in age than the general population.
My point is, while there are certainly good reasons to favor one model over others, we should refrain from dismissing the others entirely when we are still so much in the dark.