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Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins
1) The Imperial Model was built upon 75% social distancing, not 90%.
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The imperial model was a series of levels of compliance and the correlation was the same throughout - that flattening a curve pushed it out. So where's the logic there?
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2) If you believe that we'll never get to an R0 below 1 then you also must believe that there is no way that this disease will even have peaks and valleys, because as long as the R0 is above 1 case growth will continue until herd immunity is reached. It's the nature of exponential growth.
If you believe that can't happen, then you also must not believe that South Korea, or Hong Kong were ever able to get their caseloads under control, but they were.
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In the same way Singapore was. A pause doesn't mean an end. And R0 below 2 prevents exponential growth and eventually that will yield a long-term decline provided that there is acquired immunity. It becomes 'de facto' social distancing. And with any set of numbers there will be peaks and valleys, but you don't need an R0 below zero for a negative trendline. Again, we've seen enormous declines in incidents of HIV/AIDS over the years, beginning most clearly in the early/mid 90s. Yet we've never had an R0 below 1 for it. It's declined because it was below 2 and inside those trends have been small peaks/valleys.
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3) We don't yet know when the peak in cases will be (or perhaps was), because we aren't testing everyone simultaneously. These things take time. We also know that large scale isolation measures were adopted in large portions of the country starting several weeks ago. The areas that waited will likely have peaks that are delayed and/or less severe. The areas that instituted them sooner will likely have peaks that occur sooner with less severity.
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Sure, but that doesn't speak to the fact that within those specific test groups those peaks have been ripped backwards with little internal logic.
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4) No one knows for sure what the R0 of the virus is, but it's probably not 10 or 15. The makers of the model didn't know the extent of community spread. As they've learned more, they've input more data. It seems to have made the models more accurate, but that itself is also not yet known for certain.
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Sure - doesn't change the fact that the initial efforts were throwing darts at a wall and then drawing circles around them.