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Originally Posted by jdubya
What models were those numbers from?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger
I don't believe that Dr. Birx provided that information specific to those figures, but we know they are utilizing at least a models.
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I believe the big scary number came from the Imperial College in London. I believe those were the numbers shown assuming no social distancing was put into place. (Up to 2.2 million American deaths)
That model then backed everything way, way down not too long after. For example they predicted 500k deaths in the UK, then backed it down to 50k.I'm unsure of the variables that led to this back off.
Not long after that, the White House showed a model that predicted 100k - 240k Americans dying even with social distancing measures in place.
We then learned that the model the White House was using was very similar to the IHME model we all know and love. I distinctly remember Dr. Birx referencing this.
Dr. Fauci then explained that models are good, but we can't base all of our decisions on them. (So many different variables that go into models)