[Monticore]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

That's what you'd hope for. I haven't seen info on the antibody test they're using. There is a possibility that other coronaviruses could cause a false positive. I listened to a podcast on 538 with the head of the IHME model and he mentioned that the previous antibody tests had extremely high false positive rates.




Both are possible.



Depends on R. The equation is 1-(1/R). If R is 5.7, then I need 1-1/5.7, which is roughly 82%. If it is 3, then it is 1-1/3, or 67% of the population.(depending on R0)

However, let's assume that we can limit R through distancing measures. If we can drop it from 4 to 1.5, then we would need 1-1/1.5=33% of the population to contract the virus.

One thing that gives me pause is that, if these numbers are to be believed, the area with the highest density of cases in the United States is still quite far from natural herd immunity.

Disclaimer that all of this is based upon projections that these antibody studies are accurate. For the "let it burn through," crowd, it's also worth considering what happened to their hospital system when they didn't even approach herd immunity.

Could use assume 4x the hospitalizations and 4x the deaths to achieve that herd immunity? if it is 80%