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Originally Posted by O.city
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If I'm reading that correctly, that's more like "herd slowing" than "herd immunity," right? Obviously even that would be a huge win, but it's not like we could go to sporting events normally again if the theory is that it's slowed because people don't go outside their circles much.
Even then, I still just worry that in our "best case" city they're only looking at 20-30% right now, while the more rural areas of NYC are still generally < 5%. Even if you assume that you only need to hit 5%, that still means that most rural areas are going to see their deaths climb by at least 6x (and likely more) before things start to really slow down.
It's just hard for me to see a scenario where we open things up to anything resembling normal without expecting the death toll to climb to 250-500k by the time it winds down.