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Originally Posted by Monticore
Would lockdowns downs help it die out sooner or the Sweden model that I am not sure.
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I have been reading the Imperial College Model which is said to be the main reason for the "lockdown" in Mid March. They predicted 2.2 million deaths in the US without mitigation, a 50% reductions with partial mitigation, and 65% with full mitigation for 12-18 months. Obviously they were wrong early. They also did a 3-5 month mitigation, with schools closed and social isolation as we have done in the US. This is a quote from the model:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...9-Report-9.pdf
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Once interventions are relaxed (in the example in Figure 3, from September onwards), infections begin to rise, resulting in a predicted peak epidemic later in the year. The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity.
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This is why I am leaning Sweden as this virus is here, and absence a vaccine, will touch every corner.